Rounding up votes on the income tax
Ferguson jumps off the sideline, a nod to budget sustainability, some transportation tidbits, and a gross metaphor
Passage of the proposed income tax on the state’s highest earners is likely to come down to some basic arithmetic and a handful of wavering holdouts determined to get all they can for one of the most consequential votes in the recent history of Washington politics.
Here’s how the math breaks down. Passing a bill in the House takes 50 votes. Democrats hold a commanding 59-seat majority. Given that all the minority Republicans are at “hell no” on this idea, all 50 votes would come from those 59 Democrats. Three Democrats—Amy Walen of Kirkland, Alicia Rule of Blaine, and Addison Richards of Gig Harbor—are publicly opposed. So the measure can lose no more than six more votes.
Added to the mix on Friday morning was Gov. Bob Ferguson jumping off the sideline, which amps up the pressure to pass the bill. Ferguson pledged to sign the bill in part because the latest version promises1 to spend a chunk of the proceeds to provide free breakfast and lunch for all public K-12 students, which Ferguson unsuccessfully sought last year. The new version also contains a larger expansion of the Working Families Tax Credit and dedicates 5 percent of the money to the state’s currently delayed expansion of child care and early learning, which might shore up some votes.
We’re told that a sizable handful of Democrats were “uncommitted or prevaricating” as of Thursday. Most prominent of those members is Rep. Kristine Reeves, D-Federal Way, who was first elected in 2016 in a nail-biter of a race in which she campaigned on not supporting an income tax (her win let the Dems keep the majority). Reeves’ 30th Legislative District has trended blue in recent years, but the idea of such a vote as political suicide no doubt looms large there and in other formerly swing districts. Remember that every member of the House faces the voters this fall.
