In this Washington, a big night for progressives
In this Washington, a big night for progressives
Three initiatives fail, Ferguson wins big, and Democratic dreams in the 14th fizzle
Conservative initiative slate fails after $35M in opposition campaigns
Three of the four initiatives on the Washington ballot this year were essentially a broad referendum on the political legacy of outgoing Gov. Jay Inslee and the increasingly progressive Legislatures of the past few years.
Voters rejected all three initiatives on Tuesday, affirming that legacy and setting the table for a more progressive agenda in Olympia in the future, even as the nation re-embraced Donald Trump as president.
Initiative 2109, which would have repealed the capital gains tax, failed 37 percent to 63 percent. Initiative 2117, which would have axed the cap-and-trade system for large carbon emitters imposed by the Climate Commitment Act, went down 38% to 62%. Initiative 2124, which would have weakened and perhaps gutted the state’s long-term care insurance system by making the payroll tax that pays for it optional for more people, is losing 44.5% to 55.5%.
All three of those initiatives were essentially tax cuts for somebody. So how did they get such a thorough ass-kicking? Well for starters, opponents of the measures spent more than $35 million against them. The “yes” campaign for the initiatives raised just $9M, most of which was spent getting on the ballot.
The fourth measure, Initiative 2066, which would roll back various restrictions on the use of natural gas, was passing narrowly, 51% to 49%. But it’s losing by about 20 percentage points in populous King County, so it’s not clear that measure survives the many votes still to be counted. It’s something of an outlier, which we’ll get to in a bit.
The first three initiatives were part of a slate of six put on the ballot by a conservative ballot measure movement reinvigorated by an infusion of some $6 million from Republican megadonor Brian Heywood. The idea was to use the initiative process as a check on the increasingly progressive Legislature. Those measures initially went before the Legislature, where majority Democrats allowed three of them to pass, in part to keep popular ideas off the ballot.
The three that remained were far more consequential because they would have slashed billions of dollars in state revenue earmarked for education, early learning, transportation, green energy, and long-term care for seniors.
Running ballot initiatives as a slate rather than standing up individual campaigns was an unusual strategy. In this case, it enabled an opposition campaign aimed at defeating the entire slate as the work of a meddling rich dude from out of state.
Also crucial in these races: Money. Although opponents portrayed Heywood’s new-school initiative machine, Let’s Go Washington, as a millionaire dilettante project, it was brutally outspent in the fall campaign by far deeper pockets. Notably absent from the “yes” side were monied interests like the oil companies that own the states’ five refineries.
In fact, international oil giant BP and many of the state’s richest citizens spent heavily to oppose both the slate and specifically the repeals of the capital gains tax and the Climate Commitment Act. The No on 2117 campaign alone raised $16M. The $13M to oppose the long-term care initiative came almost entirely from SEIU 775, the powerful union that represents workers in that space. The union was instrumental in getting the program through the Legislature in 2019.
For the moment, the biggest outstanding question in this part of the election is the fate of I-2066. The measure was put on the ballot by a coalition led by the Building Industry Association of Washington, the state’s combative homebuilder group, which was stung by a big loss in Olympia earlier this year. That coalition essentially hired Let’s Go Washington to qualify the measure for the ballot and make it part of the slate. That coalition provided most of the campaign money for LGW this year.
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Ferguson gives Reichert a Loren Culp-level beating
Attorney General Bob Ferguson stomped former Congressman Dave Reichert in the race for the sweet suite in the capital, locking Republicans out of the governor’s mansion for the 11th consecutive election.
Ferguson’s decisive beatdown, 56% to 43%, puts Reichert’s campaign in the dubious company of that grift that Loren Culp ran four years ago. Reichert’s campaign spent substantially more than Culp’s but looks to come away with a similar result. Reichert is getting less than 28% of the vote in King County, where he was once the elected sheriff. Culp wound up with 25 percent of the King County vote, a historic low. Reichert could wind up there because the late vote in Seattle typically breaks left.
Ferguson enjoyed a massive campaign cash advantage throughout the race. In the end, he raised more than $14M compared to less than $7M for Reichert. Outside groups—mostly the Democratic Governors Association—poured nearly $8.5M into the race on Ferguson’s behalf, while the national Republican money never showed up for Reichert.
All that money helped exploit Reichert’s two major weaknesses: abortion and Donald Trump. Ferguson’s campaign relentlessly reminded voters of Reichert’s links to Trump, using telling audio and video gathered by trackers. The DGA-fueled independent campaign, meanwhile, was everywhere on television pounding the former King County sheriff on his voting record on abortion.
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Democratic dreams fizzle in the new 14th
The long redistricting drama over in the Yakima Valley looks to have ended poorly for Democrats. All three Latina Democrats running in the district redrawn by a federal court after a successful Voting Rights Act lawsuit were trailing badly after the initial vote count. Maybe it was that late hardball from the Washington State Republican Party?
Democrat Maria Beltran was nearly 14 percentage points behind veteran GOP Sen. Curtis King, R-Yakima, despite an ocean of Democratic money spent on her behalf. In the two House races, Democrats Chelsea Dimas and Ana Ruiz Kennedy had 42 percent and 45 percent respectively.
The court redrew the district to be winnable for Democrats to correct decades of districts drawn to favor white Republicans at the expense of the region’s growing Latino population.
All three candidates were criticized for being too progressive to compete in the district.
The idea that Latino voters, particularly men, yearn for Democratic representation, looks shaky as exit polls in the presidential race show most Latino men chose Donald Trump over Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
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Democrats look to pick up at least one seat in the House
The Democratic majority in the state House looks to get at least one vote bigger. Democrat Adison Richards was leading former GOP Rep. Jesse Young in the 26th Legislative District on the Kitsap Peninsula. The seat is currently held by Republican Spencer Hutchins, who isn’t seeking reelection.
That would give the Democrats 59 votes and a 60 percent supermajority. It takes 60 percent to issue state debt, which is usually necessary to pass capital and transportation budgets. Traditionally, that takes bipartisan cooperation, but a supermajority could allow Democrats to freeze out minority Republicans in those areas. That’s particularly important on transportation issues.
Democrats looked to be holding onto a theoretically vulnerable seat in the Whidbey Island-centered 10th Legislative District, where freshman Rep. Clyde Shavers was fortunate in his opposition. Republican Carrie Kennedy, the target of this tinfoil-hat campaign by a Democratic PAC, defeated the GOP’s preferred candidate in the primary. Shavers was up by about 9 percentage points in the initial count.
In Southwest Washington, two open seats currently held by Republicans hang in the balance with much of the vote still outstanding. In Clark County’s 18th District, Republican John Ley, an arch-onservative who’s lugging around a lot of carpetbagger baggage, led Democrat John Zingale by 222 votes. In the 17th LD, which stretches from Vancouver east to Goldendale, Democrat Terri Niles had a 304-vote lead over her Republican opponent, Washougal Mayor David Steube.
In races for the Senate, a further leftward shift is still uncertain. Incumbent Sen. Ron Muzzall, R-Oak Harbor, was narrowly trailing Island County Commissioner Janet St Clair in the 10th Legislative District, which is mostly Whidbey Island. In Clark County’s 18th District, where the Senate seat is open, Democrat Adrian Cortes was leading Brad Benton, best known as the son of former GOP Sen. Don Benton. It should be noted that Cortes led on Election Night in one of the district’s House seats two years ago but went on to lose.
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Upthegrove headed for victory in Public Lands race
Early vote tallies show King County Councilmember Dave Upthegrove is well on his way to his next job as Commissioner of Public Lands. As of this morning, Upthegrove was leading former U.S. Republican Representative Jamie Herrera Beutler with 53% of the vote. Most of the votes counted so far were from rural Washington or where JHB’s strongest fan base calls home.
Those results are a far cry from the nail-biter that was the August primary, in which Upthegrove narrowly survived a contest Democrats basically split five different ways. Between the partisan fervor imported from The Other Washington and the interest a wide-open race naturally brings, Upthegrove was waltzing into the general with the upper hand. That includes mountains of conservationist money and a large climate-minded voter base in his home county.
JHB was always running against the odds. Her Republican support was dicey due to that vote to impeach Donald Trump for Jan. 6. Coupled with her track record on abortion and the environment, Team JHB earned the cold shoulder from partisan Democrats and scorn from butthurt MAGA voters. Even a bucket load of timber money didn’t pay dividends.
Expect the gap to widen by the end of the week because she’s running more than 30 percentage points behind in populous King County.
TG
MGP leads Kent in CD3 rematch; Newhouse ahead of gun-fondling challenger in CD4
First-term Democratic Rep. Marie Glusenkamp Perez was leading MAGA Republican Joe Kent, 52% to 48% in a rematch of the 2022 election in which Republican-on-Republican violence in the primary led to the GOP surrendering a relatively safe seat in Southwest Washington to the Democrats. As an incumbent, MGP was able to build a big fundraising advantage over Kent. She’s also moved carefully to avoid alienating the moderate Republicans who were key to her victory in 2022, including declining to publicly support Kamala Harris for president.
Meanwhile, veteran GOP Rep. Dan Newhouse was ahead of former NASCAR driver and noted gun-fondler Jerrod Sessler, 50% to 48% in a Republican-on-Republican showdown in the highly conservative 4th Congressional District in central Washington. This is the second time that the MAGA wing of the GOP has come after Newhouse for his vote to impeach Donald Trump over the Jan. 6 insurrection. Two years ago, that vote was split among Sessler and other Republicans in the primary and Newhouse cruised to victory over a Democrat in November. Newhouse’s fate this year likely lies in the hands of the district’s relatively few Democratic voters.
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Brown rockets ahead to the AG’s office
Former U.S. Attorney Nick Brown can add Attorney General-elect to his resume per his staggering lead in this morning’s vote tally for the AG race. Ballot counts show the King County Democrat raking in 56% of the vote, leaving Republican Pasco Mayor Pete Serrano in the proverbial dust.
The lopsided race to be the state’s top cop was always Brown’s race to win. He had a stack of campaign cash, a formidable resume, and ads featuring his insanely cute kids, Team Brown walked in with the definition of a structural advantage.
Serrano’s losing court battles against gun control likely didn’t play well among Seattle-area voters increasingly inclined to take high-powered weapons off store shelves.
Brown has a tough four years ahead of him. His predecessor, Governor-Elect Bob Ferguson, made his political name by tangling with the Trump administration, which figures to be a thing again.
TG
An irksome error
In Tuesday’s item on the Senate race in the 18th Legislative District, we referred to Sen. Lynda Wilson, R-Vancouver, as the incumbent. Wilson is the outgoing incumbent in the adjacent 17th Legislative District, while Sen. Ann Rivers, R-La Center, currently represents the 18th. The Washington Redistricting Commission substantially redrew the map in Southwest Washington in 2021, moving a big chunk of the old 17th into the 18th and vice versa. So the voters in question likely experience Wilson as the incumbent.
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